Bitcoin and the largest cryptocurrencies are surging this week, nudging three month highs.
Overnight Bitcoin nearly broke the $9400 mark – and in the past 24 hours, both Fundstrat co-founder Thomas Lee and respected market analyst Mati Greenspan have said they believe the bull market is back.
They point to the fact Bitcoin has broken the 200 day moving average as a very telling sign – and even for those who don’t put a lot of faith in Technical Analysis, the 200 day moving average is such a widely tracked indicator, that it can become something of a self fulfilled prophecy.
Tom Lee says the Bitcoin’s win rate jumps above 80 percent when trading above the 200 DMA.
And former eToro market analysts Mati Greenspan from Quantum Economics said the downward facing channel in effect since the middle of July has also been “pulverised”.
In his latest newsletter he said “As far as technical analysis is concerned, it doesn’t get much more bullish than this.”
He suggested that a reversal was less likely this time, as the move has happened gradually allowing the market time to test the relevant price levels.
“I’ve seen it happen several times in my career, where a large move was widely anticipated by the market but is really taking it’s time.
“Then, when the technical breakout finally occurs there’s a moment, or a day, or even a few days of shock and disbelief to see it’s really happening. It’s really awesome to watch.”
In a live stream yesterday Craig Cobb from Trader Cobb (one of Micky’s partner companies) said we are “going into what could potentially be a strong run’ but added the “blue sky” profits will come when FOMO* from the BTC price breaking $10,000 and publicity over the halving draws in a new wave of retail investors.
(*Fear Of Missing Out)
Cobb took a break from his usual technical analysis, to try and get inside the heads of these newcomers to crypto.
Such investors might have shares or property already and between $5000 to $50,000 to invest on a more speculative asset.
They won’t understand the technical side of things, or seek to become traders, so coin choice will be based on some fairly straightforward metrics.
Reputation is one and Bitcoin will be the obvious beneficiary.
It has the biggest brand for newcomers, and Cobb said the remainder of their attention will be on the top 15 coins, which account for 90% of the entire crypto market cap.
Other metrics include the age of a coin, the market cap, the web presence along with big partnerships.
They’ll also be looking for an easily understood narrative.
Cobb looked at the prospects for Ethereum and XRP.
Ethereum works well for many of the things newcomers are looking at, but doesn’t have a simple narrative and is let down by website that is “not all that inspiring” and doesn’t engender trust.
XRP is likely to be more attractive he said.
It has a simple and professional website, partnerships with big brands and an easily understood narrative around being faster and more scalable.
He thinks there’s little chance newcomers will care about ‘centralisation’.
“It’s building trust, that ability to communicate a simple message that we’re better, we’re stronger, we’re safer,” he said.
“They’re going to look at their customers and they’re going to see American Express, and they’re going to see big brands they know and they already trust … 300 plus financial institutions across 40 countries.
“That’s going to help that new money coming in feel comfortable, that these guys are actually doing something.”
In December 2017 XRP was trading about 13 cents higher than today – but then skyrocketed as retail investors piled in and topped $3.84 with a month
Trader Cobb is a Micky partner.
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