BRANDT: Bitcoin bull market begins … on one condition

With Bitcoin nudging $8400, respected trader Peter Brandt says a bull market may have already begun … but only if one condition is fulfilled.

Bitcoin spiked 7.2% in the past 24 hours to top $8378.

It’s increased more than 21% in the past five days, and the move to almost $8400 came after Iranian missiles struck US bases in Iraq.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, who called the great crypto market crash following the  All Time High, has just suggested a new bull market may have begun.

Brandt included a chart on the Bitcoin price since 2011 that appears to show three parabolic increases, with a fourth projected out in 2020.

“Has a new bull market began in #Bitcoin $BTC?” he tweeted around lunch time.

“1. Market held support at lower boundary of multi-yr channel
2. Small H&S bottom on daily chart
3. Pending penetration of 6+ mo channel.”

He then answered his own question with:

“If enough cryptocultists have been shaken out since Dec ’17, then “yes”. If not, then “no””

The part about ‘cryptocultists being shaken out” appears to be a reference to his tweets late last year in which he proposed a bear case, where Bitcoin bottomed out at $5,500 (in July 2020), and a bull case where it continued upwards towards $50,000.

Ironically, the condition was that the bull case would only occur when most people were bearish.

“The bulls must be fully purged” he said at the time.

“When no bulls can be found on Twitter, then we will have a great buy signal”.

US and Iran war looking increasingly possible

Complicating matters of course, is the Bitcoin price surge comes as a result of worsening geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

The Bitcoin price has been increasing ever since US President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike on Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

Today the Iranians hit back, launching a dozen missiles at two US army bases in Iraq and ratcheting up the threat of all out war between the world’s biggest army, and the tenth biggest one.

As we saw with the various rounds of US/China trade war, there is a widespread belief that in times of turmoil there will be a flight of capital to safe haven assets including gold and bitcoin.

After today’s attack Joshua Green, Head Of Trading at Digital Asset Capital Management, attributed the BTC rally to the events in Iraq.

“You are also seeing oil and gold up strongly,” Green said.

War, what is it good for? (the Bitcoin price)

Michael Novogratz, CEO of the Galaxy Digital tweeted on the weekend, the “the more I analyze this Iranian situation, the more bullish the case becomes for gold and bitcoin”.

However, data from P2P trading platform LocalBitcoins in Iran suggests Bitcoin trading is actually declining in the country.

Various pundits from gold bug Peter Schiff to economist Alex Kruger believe the price increase is more likely to be caused by speculators betting other people will flock into BTC as a safe haven.

Brandt is a very experienced operator, and around the same time he released his ‘bull market’ question he put out a second tweet suggesting technical analysis may be useless in a crisis.

“When it comes to international crises, throw your price charts away — support and resistance levels will mean nothing,” he said.